Posts
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The United States of AI Dominance
Two things became abundantly clear this week: 1) The United States economy is finding another gear. 2) Generative AI and domestic technology companies are the strongest growth engine in the world, and stand to further supercharge economic decoupling. Several economic indicators came in that further bolstered the case for a stronger US economy than many...
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A New Naval Warfare Paradigm
“A good Navy is not a provocation to war. It is the surest guaranty of peace.” – President Theodore Roosevelt’s State of the Union address, 1902 Just as has happened many times in centuries past, new technologies are upending naval warfare strategies and tactics. The history of naval warfare strategy stretches through centuries of technological innovation,...
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Defending US Critical Infrastructure
Defending US Critical Infrastructure US infrastructure across energy, communications, transportation, waste, and water systems is increasingly vulnerable to cyberattacks. This is a result of both the growing sophistication of cyber threats and the integration of new technologies into these critical systems (historically, infrastructure was less interconnected and more isolated). With the integration of digital technologies...
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Chip Ambitions
Taiwan remains the epicenter of AI hardware infrastructure, which is why this month’s presidential election was in part a bellwether for the security of AI chip supply chains. Lai Ching-te of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected President of Taiwan in a three-way contest with 40% of the vote, marking a third term for...
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The Talent Gap in Critical Industries
Within the US economy a profound challenge is reshaping the dynamics of various critical industries – talent shortages. This phenomenon, which spans across areas such as healthcare, civil engineering, transportation, manufacturing (traditional and high tech), and education, is not merely a transient hiccup but a systemic issue. At the heart of this challenge is a...
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Open Source x AI
Much has been said in the past year about the impact of LLMs on software development and developer productivity. But to quickly recap using one of the more well-known tools, GitHub has published several helpful studies on how their AI coding assistant (Copilot) has helped developers: 88% reported being more productive, 96% were faster with repetitive tasks, 77%...
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Elections & Technology Implications
Welcome to Week 1 of 2024. In today’s world, every headline you come across is echoing a year characterized by volatility, and this is not without reason. A staggering $44 trillion in GDP is undergoing elections this year, representing approximately half of the global economy. This situation underscores the significant impact of our increasingly precarious...
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2023 Year in Review
As we close the chapter on 2023 we wanted to reflect on the massive shifts that have shaped the venture landscape this year, how Conversion Capital has navigated these turbulent times, and what themes and technologies we are most focused on in the new year. The pandemic of 2020, and the subsequent three years of...
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“Empty Bins” and the US Defense Industrial Base
On a recent trip to London, I once again toured the Churchill War Rooms. Hidden beneath the streets of Westminster, the historic underground complex that housed the British government command center throughout the Second World War is a must see. The 1940s were truly a chaotic time in history, yet there was no denying the...
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The New Gold Rush in Mortgage Technology?
Economists anticipate that higher rates might prevail for a longer duration than we expect, with their impact only mitigated by a deterioration in consumer credit, leading to an economic slowdown and a reaction by the Fed – arguably the best of worst-case scenarios. Market dislocations, such as the ones we’re currently witnessing, often give rise...
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Labor Unions and Automation
Technology innovation has found its unlikely ally In periods of increased inflation and economic uncertainty, profit margins contract, the value of purchasing power declines, and there’s an amplified demand for cost-of-living adjustments. Such conditions lead to a delicate balance between maintaining business viability and safeguarding employees’ purchasing power. Consequently, the escalation in labor union activities...
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America’s Decoupling
Throughout history, large macro corrections often spur transformative changes in policy, technology, and society. These changes act as a disruptive reset and are typically followed by a rapid acceleration to a new normal. Economic recoveries following a crisis however do not follow a linear path, as demonstrated in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis...